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Scenarios: Futures of Urban Areas

Marcus has a problem: His lease is ending soon, and he’s ready to move to a new city. He likes where he lives now, but the cost of housing has risen too high. And then there’s the weather. Every time an El Niño year comes around, the heatwaves make it impossible to even leave his apartment. The other years aren’t any better - the tropical storms and winter freezes are just as devastating.

El Niño is forecast to return in 2023. Here’s what it means for extreme weather and global warming

The climatic event could have drastic effects from searing heatwaves to stronger storms.

Yahoo FinanceRebecca Ann Hughes

The problem with the climate is going to be an issue wherever he moves, unless he follows in the footsteps of his brother, Dan. Dan lives in one of those new, underwater cities, and he likes it a lot.

“It’s hard to get certain groceries,” Dan says, “but you’d be amazed what some of the chefs can do with kelp.”

Scientists have a futuristic plan to live underwater and ‘unlock the ocean’s mysteries’

Organizers say the underwater research facility would give scientists and the public a rare window on life under the ocean.

USA TODAY, USA TODAY

It sounds like a nice idea, and Marcus has always wanted to explore the bottom of the ocean. Still, it sounds a little bit scary to be trapped in a big metal dome underwater all the time. He also doesn’t like the idea of being that far away from the rest of the world.

“Just move down there and hang out in a meta-city,” his coworker, Mei, tells him. “I live in the middle of nowhere, but I can attend a meeting in Tokyo, give a speech in Vancouver, and go out for drinks in Rome all in the same day.”

Seoul is the first city to join the metaverse (and this is what can already be done)

Discover Seoul’s virtual twin with the Seoul metaverse project. Explore what you can do in this new immersive replica city.

Logo negativo

His friend, Max, has another suggestion. Max lives in a recycled city - a series of structures that were built to host the 2046 Olympics, and were then converted into a walkable community.

“It’s sustainable construction, the rent is really cheap, and the skiing is great,” says Max. “And sometimes they’ll host really big events in the old Olympic Stadium. I watched Taylor Swift’s comeback tour from my apartment balcony.”

Hey Man, Can I Use That Building When You’re Done With It?

Designers and architects are creating a new generation of buildings that emphasize reusable structures, recycled materials, and sustainable disassembly.

WIREDCondé Nast

At this point, there are almost too many options. Marcus is used to traditional cities, with real buildings that were constructed to last, and oxygen outside his walls. Fortunately for him, there’s an up-and-coming town just a few hours away from where he lives now. They just passed a rent decrease law, and plan to continue gradual rent decreases over the next few years.

‘It’s legal, there’s just no precedent’: the first US town to demand a rent decrease

In Kingston, New York, tenants say their survival depends on the city ordering a rent reduction – something that’s never been done before

The GuardianWilfred Chan

He’s happy to visit Dan at the bottom of the ocean, or hang out with Mei in the meta-world, or catch a concert with Max. But in the end, he’d rather stay in a good old fashioned apartment, as long as he can afford the rent.

The housing theory of everything - Works in Progress

Western housing shortages do not just prevent many from ever affording their own home. They also drive inequality, climate change, low productivity growth, obesity, and even falling fertility rates.

Works in ProgressJohn Myers

Would you live in one of these cities of the future? Join us at chat.theforesight.club for discussions on this and other futures topics.

Community Profiles

Spring Gathering: 2023

Last month, we had the chance to get together with some of the amazing students and alumni from the University of Houston foresight program at their annual Spring Gathering.

At the Spring Gathering, we had the opportunity to see some fantastic student presentations. Check them out below:

As health threats seem to increase in frequency and scale, it becomes increasingly important to focus on the future of healthcare. In her presentation on the future of U.S. national health security, K. Lee Carpenter identifies some of the key questions and drivers that will shape the way the U.S. responds to future health crises.

Although some self driving cars may already be on the road, we are still a long way from widespread change on that front. Jeremy Wilken examines several potential ways the infrastructure of the future could adapt for self driving cars, or reject the concept in favor of human drivers.

"In Fall 2022, I worked on a project to explore the future of self driving cars, specifically passenger vehicles. It seems like predictions have consistently been that the technology is only a decade away, but after decades what might we expect? Instead of going into all of the specific research, I decided to create a series of vignettes that illustrated different scenarios from the perspective of different individuals in the future. Their stories give some indication of the drivers and forces that we allowed to shape the future (intentionally or not). At the end of the day, there are a lot of choices to be made (from regulation, to technology capabilities, to integration with social life) but currently not a lot of coordination of those choices."

With every passing year, the future of local food seems brighter – and greener. This interactive presentation by Eben Kowler looks at what changes might drive these futures, from eco-conscious corporations to smaller regional farms.

"My presentation was based on a project on Local Food I completed for Futures Research with Andy Hines in 2021. Andy challenged us to 'do something different' and I ran with that to create a micro-website with a little bit of interactivity where people could share the implications and impression on short scenario vignetter."

Futures in Media

Music Review: 2525

As futurists we love nice round even dates, and songwriters are no different (except maybe Bryan Adams). Music, like visual arts such as retro-futures, can be both nostalgic and visionary at the same time. A great example of this is Zager and Evans' classic In the Year 2525.

Written in 1969 (the same year that a certain singer got his first real six string), Zager and Evans echo the same fears and anxieties we have about our long term futures, questioning if we will even survive as a species or society that long. The song goes on to discuss the future of truth, control of thought, atrophy of our muscles since machines will do everything for us (ala Wall-E), and babies created in factories. All in all it is a very dystopian song reminiscent of 1984 and Brave New World, yet super catchy and hard to get out of your head (Zager and Evans have the unique distinction of being the only band to have a #1 hit in UK and US and then never get on the 10 ten list again.)

As an added bonus, someone took the time to piece together scenes from the OG sci-fi classic Metropolis and put it to the song. Check it out and see if the song doesn't stick with you.  

FC News

Local Chapters are Coming Soon

After a recent poll on our club chat and discussing what's next with members, it is clear that what many are lookin for is more ways to connect and get together, both physically and virtually. To that end we will be launching local chapters of The Foresight Club for places that have a community of foresight members. We will be creating some specific chat channels to help members organize locally and will even be looking for ways to help sponsor events. If you would like to help organize a local group, just let us know.

Chat Channel Updates

Adding these new chat channels has also led to the realization that our chat needs some housecleaning and organization. We have migrated to a more stable chat server and now it is time to make it easier to use, find information, and perhaps clean up some old channels and retire them. In addition to local chapter channels, we will be announcing some other channel updates in the near future, so stay tuned.

Summer Reading List

Got some good futures related books set aside for summer reading? Let us know what are some of your favorites and we will publish them in a special edition of the FC newsletter. Add them to the chat or email hey@theforesight.club.

Got Something to Share

Got some great foresight ideas? A blog post? A movie or book review? An event? Let us know. We are always looking for more great content and contributors.